This indicator provides the total number of children living in South Africa, as well as child population numbers by province, population, age group and sex.
Data Source  Statistics South Africa (2003 – 2015) General Household Survey 2002 – 2014. Pretoria, Cape Town: Statistics South Africa. Analysis by Katharine Hall & Winnie Sambu, Children’s Institute, University of Cape Town. 
Notes 

In mid2014, South Africa’s total population was estimated at 53.7 million people, of whom 18.5 million were children (under 18 years). Children therefore constitute 34% of the total population.
It is not uncommon in South Africa for children to live separately from their biological parents, in the care of other relatives. The distribution of children across provinces is slightly different to that of adults, with a greater proportion of children living in provinces with large rural populations and with greater proportions of adults in the largely metropolitan provinces. Together, KwaZuluNatal, the Eastern Cape and Limpopo accommodate almost half of all children in South Africa. A further 19% of children live in Gauteng, a mainly metropolitan province, and 10% of children in the Western Cape. Despite being the smallest province in the country, Gauteng accommodates more than a quarter of all households and adults, but less than a fifth of children. This is because of the relatively large number of adultonly households in that province.
There have been striking changes in the provincial child populations over time. While there has been a decrease in the number of children living in the Free State, Eastern Cape, Limpopo, KwaZuluNatal, and the Northern Cape provinces, the number of children living in Gauteng and Western Cape has risen by 24% and 14% respectively. This is caused partly by population movement (for example, when children are part of migrant households or move to join existing urban households), and partly by natural population growth (new births within the province).
We can look at inequality by dividing all households into five equal groups or quintiles, based on total income to the household (including earnings and social grants): with quintile 1 being the poorest 20% of households, quintile 2 being the next poorest and so on. Quintile 5 consists of the leastpoor 20%. Nearly twothirds of children live in the poorest 40% of households.
Children are fairly equally distributed across the age groups, with on average just over one million children in each year under 18. The gender split is equal for children.
These population estimates are based on analyses of the General Household Survey (GHS), which is conducted annually by Statistics South Africa. The population numbers derived from the survey are weighted to the general population using weights provided by Statistics South Africa. The weights are revised from time to time, and the estimated child population size changes as a result. Using previously weighted data, it appeared that the child population had grown by about 6% (a million children) between 2002 and 2012. However, based on recently revised weights, applied retrospectively, it appears that child population has decreased slightly, with a 0.6% reduction recorded between 2002 and 2014. There is considerable uncertainty around the official population estimates, particularly in the younger age groups.
This indicator refers to the number and proportion of children under the age of 18 years who live in South Africa. The proportions are calculated by dividing the number of children per category by the total number of children in the population.
The population numbers are drawn from the General Household Survey after person weights are applied. The person weights are calculated to yield the midyear population figures for each year, as estimated by Statistics South Africa.
The data are derived from the General Household Survey^{2}, a multipurpose annual survey conducted by the national statistical agency, Statistics South Africa, to collect information on a range of topics from households in the country’s nine provinces. The survey uses a sample of 30,000 households. These are drawn from Census enumeration areas using multistage stratified sampling and probability proportional to size principles. The resulting estimates should be representative of all households in South Africa.
The GHS sample consists of households and does not cover other collective institutionalised livingquarters such as boarding schools, orphanages, students’ hostels, old age homes, hospitals, prisons, military barracks and workers’ hostels. These exclusions should not have a noticeable impact on the findings in respect of children.
Changes in sample frame and stratification
The current master sample was used for the first time in 2004, meaning that, for analysis over time, 2002 and 2003 may not be easily comparable with later years as they are based on a different sampling frame. From 2006, the sample was stratified first by province and then by district council. Prior to 2006, the sample was stratified by province and then by urban and rural area. The change in stratification could affect the interpretation of results generated by these surveys when they are compared over time.
Provincial boundary changes
Provincial boundary changes occurred between 2002 and 2007, and slightly affect the provincial populations. Comparisons on provincial level should therefore be treated with some caution. The sample and reporting are based on the old provincial boundaries as defined in 2001 and do not represent the new boundaries as defined in December 2005.
Weights
Person and household weights are provided by Stats SA and are applied in Children Count – Abantwana Babalulekile analyses to give estimates at the provincial and national levels. Survey data are prone to sampling and reporting error. Some of the errors are difficult to estimate, while others can be identified. One way of checking for errors is by comparing the survey results with trusted estimates from elsewhere. Such a comparison can give an estimate of the robustness of the survey estimates. The GHS weights are derived from Stats SA’s midyear population estimates. For this project, weighted GHS population numbers were compared with population projections from the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s ASSA2008 AIDS and Demographic model.
Analyses of the ten surveys from 2002 to 2011 suggest that some over and underestimation may have occurred in the weighting process:
§ When comparing the weighted 2002 data with the ASSA2008 AIDS and Demographic model estimates, it seems that the number of children was underestimated by 5% overall. The most severe underestimation is in the youngest age group (0 – 9 years) where the weighted numbers of boys and girls yield underestimations of 15% and 16% respectively. The next age group (5 – 9 years) is also underestimated for both boys and girls, at around 7% each. The difference is reduced in the 10 – 14year age group, although boys are still underestimated by around 1% and girls by 3%. In contrast, the weighted data yield overestimates of boys and girls in the upper age group (15 – 17 years), with the GHS overcounting these children by about 5%. The pattern is consistent for both sexes, resulting in fairly equal maletofemale ratios of 1.02, 1.01, 1.03 and 1.01 for the four age groups respectively.
§ Similarly in 2003, there was considerable underestimation of the youngest age groups (0 – 4 years and 5 – 9 years) and overestimation of the oldest age group (15 – 17 years). The pattern is consistent for both sexes. Children in the youngest age group are underestimated by as much as 16%, with underestimates for babies below two years in the range 19 – 30%. The results also show that the overestimation of males in the 15 – 17year age group (9%) is much more severe than the overestimation for females in this age range (1.4%), resulting in a maletofemale ratio of 1.09 in this age group, compared with ratios around 1.02 in the younger age groups.
§ In the 2004 results, all child age groups seem to have been underestimated, with the underestimate being more severe in the upper age group (15 – 17 years). This is the result of severe underestimation in the number of girls, which outweighs the slight overestimation of boys in all age groups. Girls are underestimated by around 6%, 8%, 8% and 12% respectively for the four age bands, while overestimation in the boys’ age bands is in the range of 2 – 3%, with considerable variation in the individual years. This results in maletofemale ratios of 1.10, 1.11, 1.12 and 1.14 for the four age groups.
§ In 2005, the GHS weights seem to have produced an overestimate of the number of males and an underestimate of the number of females within each fiveyear age group. The extent of underestimation for girls (by 7% overall) exceeds that of the overestimation for boys (at 2% overall). These patterns result in maletofemale ratios of 1.06, 1.13, 1.10 and 1.13 respectively for the four age groups covering children.
§ The 2006 weighting process yields different patterns from other years when compared to population estimates for the same year derived from ASSA2008, in that it yielded an underestimation of both females and males. The underestimation of females is greatest in the 0 – 4 and 5 – 9year age groups, while the underestimation of males is in the range 3 – 10% in the 5 – 9 age group and 1 – 6% in the 10 – 14year age group. This results in maletofemale ratios of 1.09, 0.99, 0.96 and 1.00 respectively for the four age groups covering children.
§ The 2007 weighting process produced an overestimation for boys and an underestimation for girls. The underestimation of females is in the range of 4 – 8% while the overestimation for boys is in the range of 1 – 5%. This results in maletofemale ratios of 1.07, 1.06, 1.08 and 1.06 respectively for the four age groups covering children.
§ In 2008, the GHS weighted population numbers when compared with ASSA2008 overestimated the number of boys aged 10 and over, in the range of 3% for the 10 – 14 age group, and 8% for the 15 – 17 age group. The total weighted number of girls is similar to the ASSA population estimate for girls, but this belies an underestimate of female babies below two years (by 7 – 8%), and an overestimate of young teenage girls. The GHS 2008 suggests a maletofemale ratio of 1.03 for children aged 0 – 4 years, which is higher than that of the ASSA2008 model.
§ A comparison of the GHS and ASSA for 2009 suggests a continuation of the general pattern from previous years, which is that GHS weights result in an underestimation of children in the 0 – 4 age group (especially infants), and an overestimate of older children. In 2009 the underestimation in the 0 – 4 age group ranges up to 4% for boys and 5% for girls. In the 15 – 17 age group, the GHSweighted data produce population numbers that are 7% higher than ASSA for boys, and 3% higher for girls. The maletofemale ratios in 2009 are in keeping with those in ASSA2008, with the exception of the 15 – 17 age group where the GHSderived ratio is higher, at 1.08, compared to 1.00 in ASSA.
§ In 2010, the GHS weights again produce an underestimation of children in the 0 – 4 age group and an overestimate of children aged 15 – 17 years. For the middle age groups, and for the child age group as a whole, there is less than 1% difference in the estimates from the two sources. For the 0 – 4 age group the underestimate is lower than previously, at 2%, but for the oldest age group there is an overestimate of 5%. The maletofemale ratios are similar across the two sources, although the ratio is 1.00 for all but the 0 – 4 age group in ASSA as against 1.01 for the youngest age group in ASSA and for all age groups in the GHS.
§ A comparison of the GHS2011 to ASSA2008 (projected to 2011) suggests an underestimation of children below two years and an overestimation of children aged 14 – 17 years in the Stats SA survey. This pattern holds for both boys and girls. The underestimation is particularly pronounced for babies under a year, at 8%. The maletofemale ratio for all children under 17 is 1.00 in ASSA, and 1.01 in the GHS.
The apparent discrepancies in the ten years of data may slightly affect the accuracy of the Children Count – Abantwana Babalulekile estimates. From 2005 to 2008, consistently distorted male tofemale ratios means that the total estimates for certain characteristics would be somewhat slanted toward the male pattern. This effect is reduced from 2009, where more even ratios are produced, in line with the modelled estimates. A similar slanting will occur where the pattern for 10 – 14yearolds, for example, differs from that of other age groups. Furthermore, there are likely to be different patterns across population groups.
Disaggregation
Statistics South Africa suggests caution when attempting to interpret data generated at low level disaggregation. The population estimates are benchmarked at the national level in terms of age, sex and population group while at provincial level, benchmarking is by population group only. This could mean that estimates derived from any further disaggregation of the provincial data below the population group may not be robust enough.
Reporting error
Error may be present due to the methodology used, ie the questionnaire is administered to only one respondent in the household who is expected to provide information about all other members of the household. Not all respondents will have accurate information about all children in the household. In instances where the respondent did not or could not provide an answer, this was recorded as “unspecified” (no response) or “don’t know” (the respondent stated that they didn’t know the answer).
^{1}Dorrington R (2013) Alternative South African midyear estimates, 2013. Centre for Actuarial Research Monograph 13, University of Cape Town.
Available: www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Research_Units/CARE/Monographs/Monographs/Mono13.pdf